Uruguay vs Namibia Prediction and Betting Tips

🏈 Rugby World Cup 2023 Match Preview

⏰ 27 September 2023 - 16:45 GMT +1

⏰ 28 September 2023 - 01:45 AEST

🏟 Stadium - Parc Olympique Lyonnais (Lyon)

After fairly comprehensive losses to France (27-12) and Italy (38-17) in their first pair of matches, Uruguay's chances of finishing third in Pool A and securing automatic qualification for the 2027 Rugby World Cup (RWC) in Australia are now next to zero. They would need to win their final two matches against Namibia and New Zealand, whilst hoping Italy also defeat New Zealand in a manner that allows them to get through either on bonus points or points differential.

It's in all likelihood an impossible task, but at least this meeting with the African minnows should allow them to put together some try scoring momentum after modest attacking returns in their first two outings. They improved their scrums and lineouts against the Italians in their second match and gave an excellent first half account of themselves, but were still sloppy in defence, missing one-in-four tackles and appearing to let nerves get the better of them during key moments thereon.

Their head coach Esteban Meneses admitted as much when telling reporters after the game that his players "left parts of the field empty and could not play the game we had in the first half. In the second half, physically it's clear we were not up to the game and we suffered. Our defence was not as good". Meneses also lamented a preparation that saw them matched up with Namibia and Chile rather than the stronger opposition he desired, but their 26-18 warm-up win over the Namibians on 27 August 2023 illustrates this may not necessarily be a walkover.

Namibia would assert they're not in France simply to 'make up the numbers', but some enormous numbers have certainly been made up on them. They became the first team of the competition to concede 200+, having shipped half-centuries against all three other nations in the group. It was a seventh consecutive World Cup game in which they had at least 47 points scored against them, and is a reflection of the setback that was suffered at the hands of the COVID-19 pandemic.

They have long targeted this match as an opportunity to pick up their inaugural RWC win in what would be their 27th attempt, and are expecting a better showing in comparison with that aforementioned warm-up loss to Uruguay, where head coach Allister Coetzee said the players were "really below par" and showed a lack of intensity, discipline and focus.

Namibia have retained nine starters from that warm-up loss to Uruguay, one of whom - their only RWC 2023 try scorer Gerswin Mouton - joins Johan Coetzee as one of two players to start in all four of their games at this tournament. Regular captain Johan Deysel has missed out, so Tjiuee Uanivi will lead the side as he did twice at the 2019 RWC. Homegrown 23-year-old centre Felipe Arcos Perez will make his RWC debut as one of four changes made by Uruguay, and they too will have nine starters from the previous head-to-head meeting, so the result could be similar.

📋 Players to watch:

• Uruguayan left wing Nicolás Freitas has recorded his team's first try in each of their two games at this tournament
• Gerswin Mouton remains Namibia's only try scorer in this edition of the RWC.

⚡ Match Facts:

• Uruguay sit third in Pool A after losses to France and Italy. They need wins in last two games to have chance of qualifying.
• Namibia failed to score a single point after half-time in each of their last five RWC matches.
• Namibia bottom of Pool A after heavy defeats in all three matches so far. Still seeking first ever Rugby World Cup win.
• Two teams met in warmup match on 27 August, Uruguay winning 26-18.
• Nine players who started that match will start again for each team.
• Uruguay's Nicolas Freitas has scored opening try in both World Cup games.
• Gerswin Mouton is Namibia's only try scorer so far this tournament.
• Namibia have conceded 200+ points in pool, including 3 50+ point losses.
• Namibia have not scored any points in the second half of their last 5 World Cup matches.
• Felipe Arcos Perez makes his World Cup debut for Uruguay.
• Tjiuee Uanivi captains Namibia for third time at a Rugby World Cup.

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💡 Match Prediction:

Based on the previous results and statistics, Uruguay should be strong favorites for this match against Namibia. Though they lost their first two World Cup games, Uruguay showed they can compete with tier 1 teams like France and Italy for periods of the match. Namibia on the other hand have been comprehensively beaten in all their games so far, conceding over 50 points in each match.

Uruguay also got a good win over Namibia in a warmup match last month, suggesting they have the advantage in this matchup. Both teams are keeping similar core lineups from that game, so we can expect a similar outcome.

Namibia's poor scoring record, failing to register second half points in 5 straight World Cup matches, indicates Uruguay should be able to build a healthy lead early on. Uruguay's try scoring ability through Nicolas Freitas is also a key asset.

Betting Tips:

• Match Result: Uruguay win
• Recommended bet: Uruguay -20 handicap at 1.83 odds (AusBetSites)
• Score Prediction: Uruguay 38-15 Namibia
• Recommended bet: Over/Under total match points - Under 53.5 at 1.95 odds (AusBetSites)