England vs Australia Prediction and Betting Tips

🏏 Cricket ICC World Cup 2023 Match Preview

⏰ 4 November 2023 - 18:30 AEST

The Poms versus the Aussies - it was supposed to be one of the big ticket matches of the World Cup, but things have changed a fair bit in the last few weeks. For England, this is now about survival, not bragging rights. With the ICC announcing the top eight teams from this World Cup qualifying for the 2025 Champions Trophy, England need at least two more wins from their last three matches to sneak into the top eight. And their last match is against a Pakistani team potentially playing for a semi-final spot.

Former skipper Joe Root said he'd back this English team over the Aussies any day, despite England sitting last on the ladder before their final three games. Not sure the numbers back that up though. England lost a crazy 58 out of 60 possible wickets in their first six matches, averaging just 22.69 with the bat. Even Root himself is averaging under 30, along with Bairstow, Buttler and Stokes all struggling too. For a team with so much experience, it's incredibly poor form.

They've lost four straight to Australia as well, including a 3-0 series down under right after the 2022 T20 World Cup. Sure, the Aussies have won five of their six ODI World Cup matches against England outside of the UK, but history doesn't mean much when these rivals clash.

The Aussies have an interesting dilemma too, with Glenn Maxwell and Mitchell Marsh both suddenly unavailable after a golf buggy mishap and for personal reasons. Marcus Stoinis will likely replace one of them, maybe with Cameron Green too. Marsh apparently plans to return before the end of the tournament. Maxwell and Marsh had the third and fourth-best batting averages for Australia, scoring 421 runs and taking six wickets in their six games. Their absence could bite. Perhaps Travis Head, who scored a ton on his World Cup debut, can step up and take his first ODI wicket in India after going wicketless from 14 overs back in 2017.

Either way, a win would put the Aussies very close to booking a semi-final spot, especially if New Zealand lose to Pakistan on the same day. That seemed unlikely when they lost to South Africa and India to open their campaign.

England recorded the highest opening partnership five times so far, the most of any team. The Aussies are belting ten sixes per inning on average, behind only the Proteas. England has conceded the most sixes per inning (8.7) in 33 matches. Jos Buttler has been out for 20 or less in five of his six knocks. Josh Hazlewood has taken the third most powerplay wickets (6), going at just 4.6 an over. Mitchell Starc has got Bairstow out 17 times across all formats, averaging only 18. And Adam Zampa has got Buttler's number in ODIs - dismissing him four times at a cost of 42 runs from 53 balls faced.

📋 Players to watch:

• Adil Rashid is finding some good form, taking 2+ wickets in three of his last four games. 
• He averages almost two wickets a game against Australia from 25 matches, but it's come at a costly 5.78 an over.
• Travis Head has lifted Australia since coming into the side, illustrated by their huge 118-0 powerplay score against the Kiwis.
• Head has dominated England in ODIs, scoring seven 50+ scores including a ton, averaging nearly 53 at a strike rate of 104.

⚡ Match Facts:

• England recorded the highest opening partnership five times so far at this World Cup.
• Australia are averaging ten sixes per inning at this World Cup, behind only South Africa.
• England conceded more sixes per inning (8.7) than any other team at this World Cup after 33 matches.
• Jos Buttler was dismissed for 20 or fewer runs in five of his six innings at this World Cup.
• Josh Hazlewood took the third-most powerplay wickets of this World Cup after 33 matches, with six at an economy rate of 4.6rpo.
• Mitchell Starc has taken Jonny Bairstow’s wicket 17 times in all formats at a bowling average of just 18.
• Adam Zampa to Jos Buttler in ODIs: 4-42 from 53 balls.

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💡 Match Prediction:

Australia have more momentum coming into this match having won 3 of their last 4 games, while England is on a 4-match losing streak. Australia also holds a historical edge over England in World Cup matches outside of England. For those reasons, I'd predict Australia as favourites to win the match.

Point Difference Prediction: In their last 4 completed ODI matches, Australia has outscored opponents by 48, 63, 5 and 242 runs. England's last 4 completed matches saw them lose by 62, 31, 10 and 49 runs. Given Australia's recent dominance, I would expect them to win by a 50-70 run margin if they bat first.

Over/Under Prediction: The average first innings score so far in World Cup matches played in India is around 280. With two strong batting lineups, I'd lean towards the over if the total is set anywhere below 300.

Top Batsman Tip: Travis Head has been in superb form for Australia, while Jos Buttler is overdue for a big score for England after a poor tournament so far.

Top Bowler Tip: Adil Rashid's form and record against Australia make him a good pick for England. Mitchell Starc takes the new ball for Australia and has a great record against English openers.