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01 Nov 2023 / Platon

New Zealand vs South Africa Prediction and Betting Tips

🏏 Cricket ICC World Cup 2023 Match Preview

⏰ 1 November 2023 - 18:30 AEST

🏟 Stadium - Maharashtra Cricket Association Stadium (Pune)

Just days after New Zealand’s All Blacks lost a thrilling Rugby World Cup final to South Africa’s Springboks in Paris, cricket fans around the world will be hoping for just as exciting a contest when the men’s cricket teams meet in Pune, three hours south-east of Mumbai. Remarkably, these two sides have not clashed in either white ball format since the 2019 ODI World Cup in Birmingham, which was New Zealand’s fifth consecutive win in this tournament over the Proteas.

Past form doesn't mean much for this matchup, especially when both teams have worked into the top four of the standings with some great performances. New Zealand weren't at their best with the ball against Australia on Saturday, and even worse in the field, but the belief and grit needed to score 383 when chasing 389 - over 40 runs more than the World Cup record Pakistan achieved against Sri Lanka in this tournament - should help them for the rest of the tournament if they can repeat it.

Indeed, New Zealand had the second-best run rate (6.44rpo) and second-best economy rate (5.57rpo) of the tournament at the end of weekend play, just as before. Captain Kane Williamson could return as soon as this match from a thumb fracture, after an "encouraging" net session per head coach Gary Stead, but all depends on Monday's more intense training. That's probably bad news for opener Will Young, left behind by top-order batsmen like Rachin Ravindra (406 tournament runs at 6.46rpo), Daryl Mitchell (322 also at 6.46rpo) and Devon Conway (277 at 6.30rpo).

Only South Africa had a better tournament run rate (6.89rpo) after the weekend, lowered after limping to a last-over, one-wicket win (271/9) over Pakistan in controversial circumstances. A contentious "umpire's call" review went against Pakistan bowler Haris Rauf late in the game, when it looked to the eye Rauf got the final wicket needed to narrowly win. Some fortune went South Africa's way, briefly topping the standings before India's thumping of England. Perhaps they're finally getting luck in their ongoing hunt for a first ICC trophy.

Without injured Anrich Nortje and Kagiso Rabada (who missed Pakistan with lower back spasms), some unheralded stars have stepped up, filling gaps and prompting potential mid-tournament changes. Marco Jansen shifted between new ball and first change but now spearheads with ten powerplay wickets (for perspective, next best after the weekend was Josh Hazlewood with six).

Similarly, Tabraiz Shamsi was a secondary spinner on the Chennai Dustbowl but starred in dismissing three of Pakistan's top six for 4-60, and will be hard to leave out. When Rabada returns, vice-captain Keshav Maharaj may go after the worst bowling average (35.00) of any South African here!

Bookie Take Action

πŸ“‹ Players to watch:

  • New Zealand fast bowler Lockie Ferguson has two three-wicket hauls here, and another of his other 14 ODI hauls was at the 2019 World Cup against South Africa.
  • Like Ferguson, Gerald Coetzee had his team's best bowling figures three times here.

⚑ Match Facts:

  • South Africa recorded the highest opening partnership in five of six games here.
  • Daryl Mitchell scored 45+ runs in four of five innings here, whilst Rachin Ravindra did so in four of six.
  • Similarly, Aiden Markram scored at least 40 runs in all but one of six innings here.
  • Trent Boult has dismissed Quinton de Kock five times in ODIs, averaging 13.6.
  • Mitchell Santner to David Miller in ODIs: 2-14 from 27 balls.
  • Should he return, Kagiso Rabada may target Jimmy Neesham, with a head-to-head record of 3-28 from 28 balls.
  • NZ won the last 5 ODI matches vs SA, including 2019 World Cup
  • NZ have 2nd best batting run rate (6.44) and economy rate (5.57)
  • SA had the best batting run rate (6.89) but collapsed in the last match.
  • Marco Jansen leading SA bowling with 10 power play weeks
  • Daryl Mitchell and Rachin Ravindra in great batting form
  • SA top order batting solid but the middle order is unreliable
  • Boult has an excellent record against De Kock
  • Likely a close match but NZ slight favorites

πŸ’‘ Match Prediction:

This should be a close match between two strong teams, but New Zealand may have a slight edge based on recent form and momentum from their huge chase against Australia. New Zealand's batting lineup is in great form, with multiple batsmen scoring big runs consistently. This could help them set or chase a large total.

South Africa's bowling attack is still dangerous despite missing some key players like Rabada. But their batting has been inconsistent and collapsed against Pakistan. Predict New Zealand to win a close match.

Point Difference Prediction

  • Given the batting firepower on both sides, this should be a high-scoring game.
  • New Zealand scored 70+ runs more than South Africa in recent matches.
  • Predict the winning margin to be around 30-40 runs if New Zealand bats first.

Over/Under Prediction

  • The last 5 matches between these teams averaged around 300 total runs scored.
  • Both teams have scored over 300 runs in 4 of their last 5 matches each.
  • Predict the total match score to be over 300 runs.

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