23 Sep 2023 / admin

Scotland vs Tonga Prediction and Betting Tips

🏈 Rugby World Cup 2023 Match Preview

⏰ 24 September 2023 - 16:45 GMT +1

⏰ 25 September 2023 - 01:45 AEST

🏟 Stadium - Allianz Riviera (Nice)

The opening round losses for Rugby World Cup Pool B heavyweights Ireland and South Africa have left Scotland and Tonga facing an uphill battle to qualify for the quarterfinals. Scotland kept the damage to a minimum against the Springboks, only losing 18-3, but after seeing Ireland and South Africa run up cricket scores against Romania and Tonga, the Scots know they will need to do the same against weaker opposition to have a shot at progressing.

Scotland coach Gregor Townsend didn't mince words when talking about the importance of this match, calling it a "knockout game" for his team. "Every match now is must-win if we want to stay in the tournament," he said. It's a worrying position for Scotland, who haven't won a World Cup knockout game since 1991. But there's no need to panic yet - Scotland's most likely path to the quarters was always going to be springing an upset against Ireland.

Townsend has made four changes to his starting XV, with Kyle Steyn and Chris Harris coming in for Huw Jones and Darcy Graham, who drop to the bench. The plan seems to be to bring on the speedy backs later in the game to take advantage of tired legs. Townsend pointed to Scotland's six day break before their next match against Romania as a reason to go all out early with his best lineup. Prop Rory Sutherland and lock Scott Cummings also come into the pack.

Tonga are aiming to become the first Tier 2 side to beat Scotland since 2018, but they have a long way to go based on their 59-16 thrashing by Ireland. This will show how much progress they've made since their 60-14 loss to Scotland in late 2021. With few survivors from that matchday squad, they won't have too many mental scars.

What Tonga must quickly move on from is the Ireland hiding. In a show of faith, coach Toutai Kefu has named the same starting XV, saying they deserve a shot at redemption. There is a fierce determination in the Tongan camp to show their best. Wallabies veteran Adam Coleman could make his Tonga debut off the bench to become their 22nd Rugby World Cup debutant.

📋 Players to watch:

Scotland winger Kyle Steyn has scored tries in his last two Tests against Georgia and France.
Number eight Vaea Fifita became just the second Tongan to score tries in back-to-back games when he crossed against Ireland.

⚡ Match Facts:

Both Scotland and Tonga have lost 9 of their last 10 matches when conceding the first try.
Scotland haven't won a World Cup knockout game since 1991.
Tonga have never beaten Scotland. Their last match was a 60-14 loss in 2021.
Scotland coach Townsend has made 4 changes, including giving Steyn and Harris a start.
Tonga coach Kefu has kept faith and named the same XV that lost to Ireland.
Scotland's bench could prove key - dangerous backs like Graham can take advantage late.
Tonga hope to give Wallabies veteran Adam Coleman his debut off the bench.
Both teams struggle when conceding the first try - 9 losses in last 10 games.

💡 Match Prediction:

Scotland coach Townsend is savvy - he's saving his speedy lads like Darcy Graham for the second half when the Islanders will be blowing hard. Those fresh legs could run up a big score late on.

I'm putting a few bob on Scotland giving Tonga a proper thumping. Take the Scots -27.5 on the handicap at tasty odds of 1.90. This could get ugly for Tonga. And you'd expect a lot of points. Over 46.5 total match points is a solid bet at 1.85.

Scotland need a huge win to help their points difference for a quarterfinal spot. They'll throw everything at attack looking to rack up a cricket score.

If you're less adventurous, Scotland to win by 13+ points is a safer play at 1.80. But take the handicap if you've got the stones for it.

Betting Tips: