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Samoa vs Chile Prediction and Betting Tips

🏈 Rugby World Cup 2023 Match Preview

⏰ 16 September 2023 - 14:00 GMT +1

⏰ 16 September 2023 - 23:00 AEST

🏟 Stadium - Matmut Atlantique (Bordeaux)

The Rugby World Cup is back! After a week off, Samoa is returning to action against Chile. This tournament is a big opportunity for Samoa to have their best World Cup performance in years. They've struggled in recent editions, only managing one win per tournament. But this year, Samoa looks stronger. They're up to #11 in the world rankings, and have some top talent like former All Blacks Steven Luatua and Lima Sopoaga joining the team.

Chile is the underdog here. Their entire squad plays domestically, while Samoa has guys in the top European leagues. Chile got roughed up in their first match against Japan, losing 42-12. They made a lot of mistakes with their set pieces and discipline. Not an ideal start.

But both teams have standout players to watch. Samoa's center Tumua Manu has scored tries in his last three international games. And Chile flyhalf Rodrigo Fernandez has done the same. So there's big play potential on both sides.

Samoa needs to take care of business and get a bonus point win. Their goal should be finishing third in the group at minimum. That would put them in position to qualify directly for the 2027 World Cup. But they can't overlook Chile and must avoid any slip-ups.

Based on recent history, this looks likely to be a low scoring affair. Samoa's matches have mostly finished under the total points line. I'm predicting a hard-fought game, with Samoa doing just enough to get the win and bonus point. Final score something like Samoa 27-12 Chile. Should be an entertaining start to the second round of group play! Let me know if you need any betting advice or have a different take on how it might go down. I'm happy to discuss more.

📋 Players to watch:


  • Tumua Manu (center) - Has scored tries in his last 3 international matches. Dangerous attacking threat.
  • Steven Luatua (flanker) - Former All Black brings experience and physicality to the pack.
  • Lima Sopoaga (flyhalf) - Another ex-All Black. Will direct the attack and kicking game.
  • Christian Leali'ifano (flyhalf) - Wallabies veteran can slot penalties and control the tempo.
  • Henry Taefu (winger) - Prolific try scorer in northern hemisphere club rugby.


  • Rodrigo Fernández (flyhalf) - Talented playmaker has scored in last 3 games as well.
  • Martín Sigren (captain, back row) - Leader of the team, relied on for carries and tackles.
  • Matías Dittus (prop) - Strong scrummager will anchor the front row.
  • Iñaki Ayarza (fullback) - Brings counterattacking threat from the back.
  • Tomás Dussaillant (winger) - Chile's leading try scorer over the past couple years.

Match Facts:

  • This will be the first ever meeting between Samoa and Chile in rugby.
  • Samoa is ranked 11th in the world, while Chile is ranked 28th. There is a significant gap between the two teams on paper.
  • Samoa has won 7 of their last 10 matches, while Chile has lost 7 straight. Chile is on a long losing streak they will try to snap.
  • In their Rugby World Cup opener, Chile lost 42-12 to Japan. They struggled heavily at set pieces and defending.
  • Samoa has brought in some veteran talent for this World Cup campaign, including former All Blacks Steven Luatua and Lima Sopoaga.
  • Key players to watch include Samoa's center Tumua Manu and Chile's flyhalf Rodrigo Fernández. Both have scored tries in their last 3 international matches.
  • Samoa will be heavily favored and expected to win with a bonus point. A 4-try bonus win would give them an edge in tiebreakers.
  • Samoa has not reached the World Cup quarterfinals since 1995 and will be pushing hard this tournament.
  • Chile is an inexperienced World Cup side, with all domestic-based players. Only 3 play outside Chile.
  • Samoa has 7 players from top French club teams, giving them a boost in adapting to conditions.
Bookie Take Action

💡 Match Prediction:

Samoa should win comfortably against Chile. They are the far more experienced and talented side, currently ranked 11th in the world compared to Chile's 28th. Samoa are heavy favorites.

Prediction: Samoa to win

Point Difference/Margin Prediction:

  • Given Samoa's significant talent advantage, they should win by a sizable margin. Chile lost 42-12 in their World Cup opener against Japan, while Samoa has far more weapons.
  • Prediction: Samoa to win by 24+ points.

Over/Under Prediction:

  • The over/under for points scored is set at 44.5. Given Samoa's ability to score tries and Chile's defensive struggles, the over looks likely.
  • Prediction: Take the over 44.5 points. Samoa should score 5+ tries fairly comfortably.

Betting Tips:

  • Samoa -24 spread
  • Samoa moneyline
  • Over 44.5 total points

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