New Zealand Warriors vs Newcastle Knights Predictions and Betting Tips

🏈 NRL Semi-Final Match Preview

⏰ 22 September 2023 - 19:50 AEST

🏟 Stadium - BlueBet Stadium (Penrith)

The Panthers will host the Storm at Accor Stadium on Friday night, looking to secure a spot in yet another Grand Final and continue their bid for a third straight premiership.

As heavy 1.16 favourites, Penrith come in fresh after easily dispatching the Warriors 32-6 in week one of finals. Nathan Cleary was masterful at halfback, while Jarome Luai is set to return from injury.

The Panthers have won 10 of their last 11 matches, with six of their last seven victories coming by 20+ points - true dominance.

Meanwhile, the inconsistent Storm have still managed to reach the preliminary finals for the eighth time in nine seasons. After being shutout 26-0 by Brisbane, they edged the Roosters 18-13 last week on a 79th minute try.

Jahrome Hughes returns from injury in a boost, but Melbourne will need a massive game from Cameron Munster to pull the upset.

The Panthers will be extremely tough to beat on their home deck as they look to book yet another Grand Final appearance.

📋 Players to watch:

• Stephen Crichton has scored 4 tries in his last 5 games against Melbourne.
• Brian To'o has scored 13 tries in his last 10 games.
• Will Warbrick has scored a try in 3 of his last 4 games.

⚡ Match Facts:

• Penrith has won 5 of the last 7 meetings between the teams.
• The Panthers have won 10 of their last 11 games.
• 6 of Penrith's last 7 wins have been by 20+ points.
• The Panthers beat the Storm by 18+ points in both 2023 games.
• 4 of the last 5 games between the teams saw 38 points or less scored.

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💡 Match Prediction:

Penrith Panthers to win. The Panthers' formidable record and dominant form over the Storm this season makes them clear favourites here. Their firepower and stingy defence should overwhelm Melbourne.

Betting Tip: Penrith -12.5 point line

Given how comprehensively Penrith has beaten Melbourne in their two previous meetings this year, covering this line looks very achievable.

Tip: Under 38.5 total match points

These teams' recent low-scoring affairs point to another grind. With both possessing strong defences, I expect this to go under the relatively low total.

To summarise:

Panthers to win Panthers -12.5 Under 38.5 points

Penrith should prove far too strong at home. Their ability to keep Melbourne's scoring down will see them cover the line in another low-scoring contest between the sides.