Penrith Panthers vs Brisbane Broncos Predictions and Betting Tips

🏈 NRL Grand Final Match Preview

⏰ 1 October 2023 - 18:30 AEST

🏟 Stadium - Accor Stadium (Sydney)

The Penrith Panthers will host the Brisbane Broncos in a blockbuster NRL Grand Final clash on Sunday, October 1st 2023 at 7:30pm AEDT.

AusBetSites provides odds for the big game from 37 sportsbooks across 23 betting markets. The bookmakers have installed the Panthers as $1.57 favourites to claim the premiership.

Winning three straight premierships is an incredibly difficult feat - no team has achieved it for 40 years. After already securing back-to-back titles, will Penrith still have that same hunger and desire to do the one percenters needed in the Grand Final's dying minutes?

The youthful and eager Broncos side is competing for their first premiership and will surely leave nothing in the tank. Think of the great Roosters, Storm and Broncos teams of the 90s and early 2000s - none of them could achieve the three-peat. Is this Panthers team truly superior?

Brisbane also boasts game-breaking talent across the park that can disrupt Penrith's structure. We saw the Eels expose Penrith late in the regular season with offloads and ad-lib attack. The Broncos had 23 offloads and 11 line breaks against the Warriors last week. Their big men lay the platform for Adam Reynolds and Ezra Mam to unleash the brilliant edge combo of Herbie Farnworth and Kotoni Staggs. And that's not even considering superstars like Reece Walsh and Selwyn Cobbo.

The Broncos proved they can beat Penrith this season with an upset win at BlueBet Stadium. And despite Brisbane's struggles in recent years, the past 10 meetings have been evenly split.

Penrith has concerns too - is Jarome Luai fully fit after limping through the Storm game? Luai will be targeted physically here. And is Nathan Cleary ready to deliver his best footy like he couldn't for NSW in Origin? This is almost an Origin-like contest.

History also favours the Broncos, having won 6 of 7 Grand Finals since 1988. At $2.30 underdogs, Brisbane shapes as solid value to lift the trophy.

📋 Players to watch:

• Brian To'o has scored 16 tries in his last 11 matches.
• Selwyn Cobbo has crossed for 10 tries in his past 9 games.
• Stephen Crichton has scored a try in 3 straight Grand Finals and has 8 in his last 11.
• Herbie Farnworth has 7 tries in his past 9 appearances.
• Reece Walsh has scored in 4 of his last 5 games.
• Ezra Mam has 5 tries in his past 6 games.
• Nathan Cleary has scored in his last 4 matches.

⚡ Match Facts:

• This is a battle between the top 2 teams - Panthers finished 1st with 18-6 record, Broncos were 2nd at 18-6. Very even on paper.
• Panthers won both regular season meetings this year, 13-12 in Round 1 and 15-4 in Round 12. Very low scoring contests.
• Panthers have won 7 of last 8 head-to-head matchups. Broncos' only win was back in Round 1 this season.
• Panthers have won the last 2 NRL premierships. No team has won 3 in a row in 40 years. Broncos looking for first title since 2006.
• Panthers had the best defense in the NRL, conceding just 258 points. Broncos had 2nd best defense with 365 points allowed.
• Key Panthers players like Luai, Cleary, To'o and Crichton have strong recent try-scoring form. As do Broncos' Cobbo, Farnworth, Walsh.
• The Panthers and Broncos have split their last 10 meetings with 5 wins each.
• No team has won 3 straight premierships in the last 40 years.
• Brisbane has won 6 of the 7 Grand Finals they've played since entering the NRL in 1988.
• The total points scored has gone UNDER 38.5 in 7 of the last 8 games between these teams.
• The two matches between them this season finished with just 19 and 25 total points.
• Brisbane and Penrith boasted the top defensive records in the NRL this season.
• 4 of the last 5 head-to-head games were decided by a 1-12 point margin.

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💡 Match Prediction:

This should be an epic Grand Final between the two standout teams this season. The Panthers' premiership pedigree and stout defense makes them deserved favorites. However, the Broncos have the pace and power to challenge them, as shown in Round 1. I expect another close, low-scoring arm wrestle. Panthers' repeat title bid will fall just short with the young Broncos to upset them by 2-6 points.

Betting Tips:

• Broncos to win @ $2.30
• Under 38.5 total points @ $1.91
• Either team to win by 1-12 points @ $2.40

With the slate wiped clean for the Grand Final, I'm backing the hungry Broncos to flip the script at the neutral stadium against a Panthers side aiming for a rare three-peat. The projected low-scoring, tight contest also lends itself to the unders play.