Melbourne Demons vs Hawthorn Hawks Predictions and Betting Tips
🏈 AFL Round 23 Match Preview
⏰ 20 August 2023 - 15:20 AEST
🏟 Stadium - Melbourne Cricket Ground
AFL fans are set for a thrilling match this Sunday 20 August when the Melbourne Demons take on the Hawthorn Hawks at 15:20 AEST.
The clash at the MCG between these two sides promises to excite footy supporters. According to AusBetSites, the Demons are strongly favored by bookmakers to claim the win at odds of $1.18 across 37 betting markets.
With insights from 3 Australian sportsbooks, AusBetSites gives extensive odds analysis and information on this blockbuster AFL contest. The Demons will look to continue their stellar form, while the rebuilding Hawks will be out to cause a big upset.
As finals approach, Melbourne need a win over Hawthorn to lock up a top-four spot. The Demons went down to Carlton by 4 points last round, despite sitting 3rd on the ladder with a 6-point buffer on 5th. They face a dangerous Hawthorn side who continue to impress despite sitting 16th. The Hawks backed up their Round 21 upset of Collingwood by stunning the Bulldogs by 3 points last week.
Emerging star Jai Newcombe racked up a career-high 40 disposals, while Karl Amon had 32 touches. But Hawthorn's in-form midfield will be tested against Melbourne's star-studded engine room including Clayton Oliver, Jack Viney and Christian Petracca.
Oliver returned from injury for 27 disposals last week, while Petracca had 24 disposals and 2 goals in the narrow loss. This shapes as a danger game for the Demons against the plucky Hawks.
Melbourne Demons vs Hawthorn Hawks Head-to-Head
The recent head-to-head record shows that Hawthorn have had a strong edge over Melbourne in their last few contests. Over the past 3 seasons, the teams have met on 3 occasions and the Hawks have won all 3 of those matches. Hawthorn's experience and composure has caused problems for Melbourne. The Hawks will look to continue their recent perfect record against the Demons when they meet again on Sunday. However, Melbourne's improvement over the past couple of seasons means they will be hungry to finally break their drought and defeat their long-time rivals. The Demons know a win over the Hawks would give them great confidence.
Melbourne Demons Performance
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟥 The Melbourne Demons come into this match in red-hot form, having won their last 4 games straight. The Demons have been dominant across the ground, with their midfielders and forwards in particular wreaking havoc. Key players like Max Gawn and Clayton Oliver have been instrumental in Melbourne's surge up the ladder. Their only blip recently came in a narrow loss 5 weeks ago. Riding a wave of momentum, the Demons will be highly confident facing the inconsistent Hawks. Melbourne will look to make it 5 wins on the trot.
Hawthorn Hawks Performance
🟩🟩🟥🟥🟩 It has been an up-and-down month for Hawthorn, recording 3 wins and 2 losses from their past 5 matches. The Hawks have shown glimpses of their best form, including an impressive victory over the Swans. However, disappointing losses to lower-ranked sides have also crept in. While the Hawks have the potential for major upsets, their inconsistency makes them hard to tip. Coming up against the red-hot Demons, Hawthorn must produce four complete quarters to be any chance. But a vintage performance could see the Hawks turn back the clock.
📋 Players to watch:
- James Worpel has averaged 24 disposals in his last 4 matches against Melbourne.
- Conor Nash is averaging 24 disposals per game this AFL season.
- Jai Newcombe recorded a career-high 40 disposals last round and has had 25+ in 5 of his last 6 games.
- Christian Petracca has averaged 29 disposals in his last 4 matches against Hawthorn.
- Jack Viney has recorded 25+ disposals in his past 9 matches.
- Kysaiah Pickett has kicked 5 goals in his last 3 games versus the Hawks.
These stats highlight some in-form players and intriguing historical matchups. Prolific ball-winners like Worpel, Nash, Newcombe, Petracca and Viney should find plenty of possessions. Meanwhile, Pickett has a strong recent goalkicking record against Hawthorn. This shapes as a tantalizing battle between the experienced Demons and emerging Hawks.
⚡ Match Facts:
- Melbourne has won 6 of its past 7 matches against Hawthorn, with the other result a draw.
- The Demons sit third on the ladder with 14 wins while the Hawks are 16th with 7 victories.
- Hawthorn has won its past 2 games, toppling top-8 sides. Melbourne has won 5 of its last 6.
- The Hawks rank second for disposals, with Melbourne coming in sixth.
These points show Melbourne's dominance over the Hawks lately, but also Hawthorn's giant-killing form. While the Demons clearly have superior ladder position, the Hawks have been plucky with prolific ball movement. However, Melbourne's experience should still give them the edge in this intriguing battle between clubs at opposite ends of the table.
💡 Match Prediction:
The forecast expects Melbourne's strong form to continue against the inconsistent Hawks. Predicting 19 goals reflects Melbourne's scoring power, especially at the MCG. Meanwhile, Hawthorn may find goals hard to come by against a stingy Demons defense. The 47 point winning margin fits with Melbourne picking up a solid 19+ point win. This projected score has the Demons flexing their muscle to record a comfortable victory over the Hawks, who remain in the contest but ultimately fall short.
Despite Hawthorn's strong recent record against them, Melbourne are favored to beat the inconsistent Hawks at home this Sunday. The Demons have been given a 68.8% chance of winning, with Hawthorn at 31.2%. Melbourne are also favorites based on the fair odds at $1.45, while the Hawks are outsiders at longer odds of $3.20.
Given the Demons' blazing current form, the forecast predicts they will account for Hawthorn by 19 points or more. The Hawks will likely struggle to contain Melbourne's potent attacking threats for four full quarters. However, if Hawthorn produces their best, they could give the Demons a scare.
Melbourne Demons vs Hawthorn Hawks: Demons 19.8 (122) - Hawks 11.9 (75)
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