Melbourne Demons vs Carlton Blues Predictions and Betting Tips
🏈 AFL Final Round Week 2 Match Preview
⏰ 15 September 2023 - 19:50 AEST
🏟 Stadium - Melbourne Cricket Ground (Melbourne)
The Melbourne Demons will host the Carlton Blues in a blockbuster AFL elimination final this Friday night. The highly anticipated clash will take place on September 15, 2023 at 7:50pm AEST at the MCG.
AusBetSites provides betting odds from 49 bookmakers across 37 markets for this matchup. Currently, the Demons are narrow 1.5 favourites to defeat the Blues.
Both teams were involved in thrilling qualifying finals in front of 90,000 fans to open the finals series. Melbourne went down by 7 points to Collingwood despite dominating inside-50s, while Carlton held off the Swans by 6 points to eliminate last year's grand finalists.
The Blues were led by strong midfield performances from Sam Walsh, Blake Acres and George Hewett, who all gathered 25+ disposals. However, they'll be without key forward Harry McKay due to concussion and Jack Martin through suspension. Jack Silvagni is a chance to return from injury.
The Demons will be missing Angus Brayshaw and Jacob van Rooyen. Ruckman Max Gawn was best afield against the Pies, while Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca found plenty of the ball. Melbourne will need to capitalise on their scoring chances more efficiently.
With both sides boasting talent down back, this could come down to the wire, like their thrilling 4-point game in Round 22. The winner progresses to a preliminary final against Brisbane, while the loser bows out of the 2023 season.
Melbourne Demons vs Carlton Blues Head-to-Head
The recent head-to-head record between Melbourne Demons and Carlton Blues is led by the Blues, who have won 3 of the last 4 matches between the teams over the past 3 years. Carlton hold a 3-1 edge over Melbourne during this period, with the Demons' solitary win coming in their Round 10 clash earlier this season. The Blues have clearly had the wood over the Demons in their recent matchups, winning their last 3 consecutive games against Melbourne. With finals experience and winning momentum in this rivalry, Carlton will feel confident they can continue their recent dominance over the Demons. However, all form goes out the window in big finals like this. Melbourne will be hungry to reverse their fortune against the Blues and level up their recent head-to-head ledger.
Melbourne Demons Performance
🟩🟩🟩🟥🟥 The Melbourne Demons come into this elimination final with mixed form in their last 5 games, recording 3 wins and 2 losses. The Demons scored victories over the Dockers, Hawks and Crows but also suffered defeats to the Swans and Magpies in the lead up to finals. While Melbourne have shown they can still beat lower-ranked sides, their losses to fellow top teams Sydney and Collingwood demonstrate vulnerabilities. The Demons will need to lift their game to match it with Carlton, who come in with superior current form.
Carlton Blues Performance
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 Carlton Blues carry strong momentum into this finals clash, having won 4 of their previous 5 games. The Blues scored wins over the Giants, Tigers, Crows and Swans, with their only blemish a loss to the Dockers in Round 21. Carlton's recent ability to beat other finals sides like Sydney proves they can match it with the top teams when it matters. Back-to-back victories to secure their spot in the eight and eliminate the Swans last week means the Blues should be full of confidence. Their form edge could give Carlton a decisive advantage over Melbourne.
📋 Players to watch:
- Sam Docherty has racked up 20 or more possessions in 19 of his 21 matches this AFL season according to AusBetSites.
- Carlton captain Patrick Cripps has averaged 25 disposals in his last five clashes with Melbourne.
- Blue Nic Newman has collected 20-plus disposals in his past nine games.
- Demon Clayton Oliver has averaged 28 touches in his previous four encounters against the Blues.
- Bailey Fritsch has kicked seven majors in his last four matches versus Carlton.
- First-year Demon Kozzie Pickett has booted at least one goal in seven of his past eight appearances.
- Christian Petracca has slotted six goals in his last five games against Carlton.
⚡ Match Facts:
- Since the current AFL Finals system began, 42 Semi Finals have taken place with the loser of the Qualifying Final the previous week winning 33 of those.
- Melbourne finished the 2022 home and away season second with 16 wins, while Carlton were fifth with 13 victories.
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💡 Match Prediction:
Match Result Prediction: Melbourne Demons to win. Despite Carlton's 3-1 head-to-head advantage, the Demons go in as deserved favourites at home. Melbourne finished higher on the ladder and have the experience edge.
Betting Tip: Melbourne -15.5 at 1.91 odds. The Demons have covered big spreads against bottom sides this season. Their firepower can overwhelm Carlton's leaky defense.
Total Match Points: Over 159.5 points at 1.95 odds. The last 3 matches between these teams have averaged 170 total points. Both sides have enough scoring power to push this over the line.
Carlton's midfield led by Cripps and Walsh will challenge Melbourne, and the Blues' recent finals win brings confidence. However, the Demons' superior top-end talent through Oliver, Petracca and Fritsch can exploit Carlton's vulnerable backline. Melbourne's scoring power, particularly at home, makes them worthy favorites. Backing the Demons to cover a big margin seems the safest betting approach.
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