Cricket Indian Premier League Prediction

Lucknow Giants vs Mumbai Indians - Match Preview

🏏 24 May 2023 - 14:00 GMT +0

After 70 regular season matches and almost two months of non-stop cricket, the 2023 IPL playoffs are finally here. The second of the do-or-die matches is between the third-placed Lucknow Super Giants and the fourth-placed Mumbai Indians, with the MA Chidambaram Stadium in Chennai playing host. The victor will move to Ahmedabad to play the loser of Qualifier 1 between Gujarat and Chennai. Mumbai will need to change history to get their first win over Lucknow after having lost the last three head-to-head matches.

Great form is what Lucknow are bringing into this playoff, having won all of their last three matches, including a match that will mentally be a great advantage - a five-run win against Mumbai in match #63. Most recently, there was a much closer one-run win against Kolkata to make sure LSG would get the two points required to stay in the top four. Nicholas Pooran was the key with the bat when continuing a good season with 58 from 30 balls before the spinners of Lucknow combined for 4/79 from 12 overs to keep Kolkata behind the required score.

Lucknow will be very happy that the IPL is not a tournament where home finals are earned after winning just three matches at home on a pitch that averaged just 148 runs in the first innings. Having had experience on low and slow pitches in this IPL may be an advantage, with the pitch at Chennai also seeing low scores of 134, 139 and 144 in this tournament. The heart of Lucknow’s success this season has been their bowlers, who haven’t necessarily taken the most wickets, but have been economical, conceding an average of just 158 runs per innings. It’s not all rosy for Lucknow, though, with their batting, they need to seriously improve against the high-scoring Mumbai, especially during the powerplay, during which period Lucknow has averaged just 47 runs at the lowest run rate in the tournament (7.87rpo).

Mumbai had to wait until after midnight on the final night to book their tickets to Chennai after finding out Banglore lost to Gujarat, allowing Rohit Sharma’s team to scrape into fourth position. The biggest worry for Mumbai this season has been their bowling lineup, because the loss of Jasprit Bumrah before the season and Jofra Archer during the season would have had plenty of Mumbai fans worried. Thankfully, the side was able to rely on their strong batting lineup, which has been led by Suryakumar Yadav with 511 runs at a strike rate of 185 while fellow top-order batters Ishan Kishan and Cameron Green have both passed 380 runs for the season.

Mumbai came into their last match needing a win to move onto 16 points and thus give themselves a chance at the finals. Coming up against the wooden spooners in Sunrisers Hyderabad was certainly an advantage, but not quite as much as Cameron Green coming out at number three and blasting his way to a maiden IPL century in Mumbai’s pursuit of 200. In good news for Mumbai fans, Rohit Sharma also managed to find some form in the big moments, getting his way to 56 from 37 balls before Suryakumar Yadav came in to finish off the match.

One serious area of concern will be giving up 200 runs to the bottom-ranked side, which has been an issue all season, with Mumbai being the most expensive bowling team, conceding an average of 187 runs. That is despite Piyush Chawla finishing fourth on the wicket-taking chart with 20 wickets at an average of 21.10, the next best Mumbai bowler being Jason Behrendorff who took his 14 wickets at an unenviable rate of 9.65rpo.

⚡ Key battle: Other batters have scored more runs this IPL but no batter has scored more than 120 at a faster rate this season than Suryakumar Yadav. His wicket will be key to Lucknow’s success in this match. The good news for Lucknow is that he struggled against leg spin, striking at just 133.60 while averaging 34.10 against the craft. In even better news for Lucknow, those numbers dropped even further against Ravi Bishnoi, whose Suryakumar Yadav dropped 25 balls again, scoring 29 runs while being dismissed three times.

📋 Stat attack: Ishan Kishan struck 304 runs during the powerplay in 2023, scoring at 8.85rpo within the first six overs.

• Mumbai has struck the most sixes on six occasions this season, compared with seven times for Lucknow.
• No Lucknow bowler has taken more than three total wickets during the powerplay in this tournament, while Jason Behrendorff has taken eight wickets at an average of 21.12 during that period.
• Mumbai have lost four of their six games played in Chennai since the start of 2021.
• Lucknow have had a different top scorer in each of their last six matches.
• Marcus Stonis v Jason Behrendorff - 37 runs, 32 balls, 1 wicket.
• Rohit Sharma v Krunal Pandya - 15 runs, 15 balls, 1 wicket.
• Deepak Hooda has played three innings in Chennai, scoring just 30 total runs from 31 balls whilst being dismissed on all occasions.
• Rohit Sharma has the most runs at this venue of the two squads, scoring 353 from 284 balls at an average of 27.15.