Newcastle Knights vs Canberra Raiders Predictions and Betting Tips

🏈 NRL Final Round Week 1 Match Preview

⏰ 10 September 2023 - 16:05 AEST

🏟 Stadium - Suncorp Stadium (Brisbane)

The Newcastle Knights will host the Canberra Raiders in an exciting NRL elimination final on Sunday night at McDonald Jones Stadium. Rugby league fans in the Hunter are buzzing for the opportunity to experience finals footy on home turf.

According to the odds at AusBetSites, the Knights have been installed as strong 1.11 favourites to win in front of their adoring home fans. The Aussie bookies have Newcastle as short-priced favourites across the 3 sportsbooks offering markets on the match.

After spending much of the season outside the top 8, the Knights have surged into fifth spot on the back of a remarkable nine-game winning streak. They come into this final with all the momentum. Spearheaded by superstar fullback Kalyn Ponga, the Knights' attack has been electric during this charge up the ladder. Ponga is hopeful of overcoming a shoulder issue to take on Canberra.

While Newcastle are red-hot, the Raiders limp into the finals having lost 3 of their past 4 matches. With key forwards Josh Papalii and Corey Horsburgh unavailable, the Green Machine face an uphill battle.

Back in July, the Knights flexed their muscle with an imposing 28-6 win away to Canberra. In front of their passionate home fans, Newcastle will be confident of repeating that performance on Sunday and booking a spot in the semi-finals.

Newcastle Knights vs Canberra Raiders Head-to-Head

The Newcastle Knights and Canberra Raiders have faced off 11 times in the past 8 years. In head-to-head matchups, the Knights have managed just 4 wins compared to the Raiders' 7 wins over this period. There have been no draws between the two teams in their last 11 meetings. The lopsided head-to-head record favors the Canberra Raiders, who have defeated the Newcastle Knights in the majority of their recent matchups.

Newcastle Knights Performance

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 The Newcastle Knights are riding a hot streak, having won their last 5 games in a row. The team seems to be gelling and firing on all cylinders, demonstrating tenacity and skill to string together this successive run of victories. If the Knights can sustain this level of play, they have a strong chance to make a push in the standings. Their confidence must be sky-high coming off this impressive series of wins.

Canberra Raiders Performance

🟥🟥🟩🟥🟩 Canberra Raiders have struggled a bit lately, managing just 2 wins against 3 losses in their last 5 contests. The team hasn't been able to find consistency or momentum, alternating between wins and losses during this stretch. To turn things around, the Raiders will need to pinpoint areas for improvement and focus on executing for a full 80 minutes. Having dropped 3 of their last 5, the Raiders are looking for answers to get back into the win column more regularly.

📋 Players to watch:

• Greg Marzhew has scored a try in eight of his last nine matches
• Dominic Young has scored 23 tries in 23 matches this season
• Kalyn Ponga has scored a try in four of his last five matches against the Raiders
• Hudson Young has scored a try in four of his last five matches against the Knights

⚡ Match Facts:

• The Knights have won their last nine matches in a row
• The Knights have defeated the Raiders twice so far this season
• The Raiders have not beaten any team outside the bottom four since 17 July
• The Raiders have lost three of their last four matches
• The Raiders have scored just one try in their last two away matches
• The Knights are 9-3 at McDonald Jones Stadium this season
• The Raiders have lost seven of their 10 matches against top eight teams this season
• The Raiders have won just one of their last six matches at McDonald Jones Stadium

💡 Match Prediction:

Based on the Knights' strong recent form and home-ground advantage, I predict they will cover the line and win by more than 6.5 points. I also expect both teams to cross the line multiple times, making the over 44.5 total match points a good bet. The Knights should continue their dominance over the struggling Raiders.

Match Result: Newcastle Knights to win

Recommended bet: Knights -6.5 at $1.90

Total Match Points: This should be a high-scoring game between two attacking teams

Recommended bet: Over 44.5 total points at $1.90