27 Sep 2023 / admin

Japan vs Samoa Prediction and Betting Tips

🏈 Rugby World Cup 2023 Match Preview

⏰ 28 September 2023 - 20:00 GMT +1

⏰ 29 September 2023 - 05:00 AEST

🏟 Stadium - Stadium Municipal (Toulouse)

With England seemingly in control of Pool D at the 2023 Rugby World Cup (RWC), this match between Japan and Samoa could be pivotal in deciding who joins them in the quarter-finals. Both teams scored bonus point wins over minnows Chile to sit on 5 points each, but Japan then lost to England while Samoa went down to Argentina, who have 4 points, meaning knockout qualification is wide open.

Japan's decline after their breakthrough 2019 home World Cup has been well documented, with just 5 wins from 21 games since then seeing them slip to 13th in rankings. But they showed their quality in beating Chile convincingly, and nearly upset England before fading late. A win here would set up a virtual knockout game against Argentina to end the pool stage. Coach Jamie Joseph has made two changes, with Dylan Riley at centre and 2019 World Cup veteran Lomano Lemeki coming in at fullback.

Japan hold a 2-1 RWC head-to-head edge over Samoa, including a 38-19 rout in 2019. However Samoa won the most recent match 24-22 in the Pacific Nations Cup in July, and will look to use that confidence boost to bounce back from their error-strewn 19-10 loss to Argentina. Another defeat would likely end Samoan knockout hopes, but a 13th win in the 18th meeting with Japan would throw Group D wide open ahead of the finale with England. Some superstitious Samoan fans will note they also lost to Argentina but beat Japan to reach the 1999 World Cup quarters.

The Samoan coaches have made 4 changes, including lock Taleni Seu promoted from the bench. He joins no.8 Jordan Taufua, centres Alai D'Angelo Leuila and Tumua Manu as incoming players.

📋 Players to watch:

Unlikely scorer Japan lock Amato Fakatava touched down twice against Chile, and in the last Japan-Samoa match.
Samoa fullback Duncan Paia'aua has scored in 3 of his last 4 tests.

⚡ Match Facts:

Japan take on Samoa in Pool D of the Rugby World Cup on 27 September 2023.
The winner will boost their chances of progressing to the quarter-finals.
Japan beat Chile but lost to England in their first two matches.
Samoa defeated Chile but fell to Argentina last start.
Japan won the last World Cup clash 38-19 in 2019.
But Samoa won the most recent meeting, 24-22 in July 2022.
Samoa have won 13 of the 18 games played between the nations.
Japan coach Joseph has made 2 changes to his starting XV.
Samoa have made 4 changes following loss to Argentina.
Recent matches between the teams have been decided by small margins.
Samoa's last 9 international matches have finished under the total points line.

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💡 Match Prediction:

This should be a tightly contested match between two evenly matched sides. Japan showed against England they can still compete with the top tier teams, while Samoa have proven ability to upset the established order, including their recent win over Japan.

With both teams desperate to remain in World Cup contention after defeats last start, motivation will be high. The four changes made by Samoa suggest they will look to improve on the errors that cost them against Argentina. Japan are also making changes to find their best lineup.

Based on the close margin in recent matches between these two, and with so much on the line, a tense, low scoring game seems likely.

Betting Tips: