Italy vs Uruguay Prediction and Betting Tips

🏈 Rugby World Cup 2023 Match Preview

⏰ 20 September 2023 - 19:45 GMT +1

⏰ 21 September 2023 - 01:45 AEST

🏟 Stadium - Matmut Atlantique (Bordeaux)

The Wallabies host the All Blacks in a Rugby World Cup clash that's bound to thrill all rugby union fans. The game will take place on Wednesday, 20 September 2023 at 01:45 AEST.

AusBetSites provides betting odds from 49 bookmakers across 24 markets for Australia and New Zealand. Currently, bookies have installed the Wallabies as narrow favourites to win at $1.02.

The All Blacks and Springboks may be runaway favourites in Pool A at the 2023 Rugby World Cup, but there's still plenty at stake for Australia and Uruguay when they meet in the second round of Pool A action at Suncorp Stadium. The Wallabies laid a strong platform for their top eight ambitions with an 87% tackle rate and a mighty 20 from 21 successful lineouts in trouncing Namibia 52-8 in Perth.

They've well and truly bounced back from last July's shock loss to Georgia, piling on big scores against Japan and Romania as well as Namibia. That came after a decent if winless Six Nations campaign, continuing an impressive run of overachievement that's seen them cover the pre-game line in nine of their ten matches in 2023.

Coach Dave Rennie said the side "worked well" at training and has promised a "focused" performance against the South Americans. While they'll be targeting an upset over the All Blacks or Boks to make their first quarter-final, Uruguay's spirited effort against the hosts France last week will ensure they don't take this game lightly.

Rennie has made four changes to his starting XV and a couple of reshuffles to retained players. Quade Cooper comes in to partner his Reds teammate Samu Kerevi, who has shifted from inside centre to outside centre to allow Hunter Paisami to move to 12 and allow Andrew Kellaway to take his preferred role at fullback. Cadeyrn Neville joins Izack Rodda in the second row, making his first appearance of the tournament. Waratahs prop Angus Bell has been named to make his RWC debut, albeit shifted to loosehead.

Two wins from four is often enough to grab third place and automatic qualification for the next RWC, which is why Uruguay are targeting their matches against Australia and Namibia for direct entry to the 2027 tournament in Australia. Bookies had given Uruguay around a 50-point handicap against France, but early in the second half they'd cut the deficit to just one point before the hosts got serious and pulled away.

Their coach Esteban Meneses made just two changes, rewarding most of the side that challenged France for two-thirds of the match. Veteran Toronto wing Gastón Mieres, the country's second-most capped player, slots into the starting lineup for Bautista Basso. 29-year-old Germán Kessler is the fifth-most capped player in the squad and replaces Guillermo Pujadas, who drops to the bench.

"Proud" captain Andrés Vilaseca said he "couldn't ask for a better team to lead", and after recording more winning mauls, rucks and defenders beaten than France with limited possession, it's easy to see why. Uruguay just need to fix their set piece, with their scrums particularly poor against France. The Wallabies are just as unlikely to let them get away with it. Still, it was only two years ago that Uruguay shocked Australia 17-10, reminding the hosts what they're capable of.

📋 Players to watch:

• Before crossing against Namibia last week, the Wallabies' Andrew Kellaway scored tries in four of his previous six starts at fullback.
• Uruguay's first try against France came from winger Nicolás Freitas.

⚡ Match Facts:

• The Wallabies vs All Blacks at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
• 2023 Rugby World Cup Pool A match
• Kickoff: Wednesday, 20 September 2023 at 1:45pm AEST
• Wallabies won their RWC opener vs Namibia 52-8
• All Blacks beat host nation France in their first match
• Wallabies made 4 changes to their starting XV
• Quade Cooper starts at flyhalf for Australia
• Samu Kerevi shifts to the outside centre
• Uruguay pushed France close for most of their RWC opener
• Gastón Mieres and Germán Kessler come into Uruguay's XV
• Wallabies have covered the handicap in 9 of their last 10 matches
• Pre-match favourite has won all of Australia's RWC matches this century
• Uruguay shocked Australia 17-10 when they last met in 2021

💡 Match Prediction:

Italy should win comfortably against Uruguay. They looked sharp in their RWC opener against Namibia, while Uruguay was competitive but ultimately overmatched by France.

Italy's previous match ups against Uruguay also favor the Azzurri, with Italy winning 17-10 when they last met in 2021.

Uruguay may keep it close for a half, but expect Italy's superiority to show through for a double digit win.

Prediction: Italy by 15-20 points

Betting Tips:

Point Spread: Take Italy -13.5 points or more. They should cover this line easily.

Moneyline: Back Italy at very short odds around 1.01-1.02. Not much value due to their heavy favoritism.

Total Points: Take the under 53.5 points. Italy may reach 30+ but Uruguay will likely struggle for points.

Top Try Scorer: Italy fullback Ange Capuozzo is a good bet at attractive odds after crossing last match.

Overall, Italy should control this match and get their RWC campaign back on track. Back them on the handicap and to beat a generous total points line. Uruguay may show heart but is overmatched on talent.