Hawthorn Hawks vs Fremantle Dockers Predictions and Betting Tips
🏈 AFL Round 24 Match Preview
⏰ 26 August 2023 - 13:45 AEST
🏟 Stadium - Melbourne Cricket Ground
The Hawthorn Hawks will host the Fremantle Dockers in an exciting AFL match on Friday 26 August 2023 at 1:45 pm AEST.
AusBetSites has compiled odds for the game from 57 different sportsbooks across 3 betting markets. The online bookmakers have installed the home side Hawks as narrow favourites at $1.51 to defeat the visiting Dockers.
Hawthorn enters this final-round clash as favourites on the back of some improved performances in the latter part of the season. The Hawks also hold the advantage of home-ground familiarity. Last weekend, Hawthorn was competitive against 4th-placed Melbourne but couldn't match the Demons when it mattered most, going down by 27 points. James Worpel, Karl Amon and Conor Nash were standouts for the Hawks, each racking up 25+ disposals.
Prior to the loss against Melbourne, Sam Mitchell's side managed back-to-back wins over the Western Bulldogs and Collingwood. They have seven victories for the year and sit 16th on the ladder. Fremantle is one spot above in 14th with nine wins.
The Dockers also faced a top-four team in Round 23, losing to Port Adelaide by 16 points. Andrew Brayshaw and Liam Henry led the way with 30+ disposals each, while Caleb Serong continued his stellar season with 27 touches.
Fremantle had the better record this year and were commanding winners when the teams last met in Round 8. But Hawthorn have improved since then and will enjoy home-ground support this time around. Expect the Hawks to close out 2023 with a victory in front of their faithful fans.
Hawthorn Hawks vs Fremantle Dockers Head-to-Head
In recent history, Fremantle have dominated this matchup against Hawthorn. Over the last 3 years, the Dockers have won all 4 of the games played between the sides. The Hawks have been unable to record a victory in their previous 4 meetings with Fremantle during this period. The Dockers will enter this clash with a strong psychological edge, having proven very difficult opposition for Hawthorn in recent seasons. However, the Hawks will be determined to reverse this trend by securing a much-needed win on home soil this Friday afternoon.
Hawthorn Hawks Performance
🟥🟥🟩🟩🟥 The Hawthorn Hawks have had mixed results in their last 5 games, managing 2 wins against 3 losses. Out of their most recent matches, they were victorious 40% of the time, while being defeated on the other 60% of occasions. This indicates the Hawks have struggled to find consistency lately, with most games ending in disappointment for the team and its fans. However, the 2 triumphs they achieved prove the Hawks are still capable of success on any given day. To improve their form, Hawthorn will need to find a way to string together more positive results in upcoming games. While their recent record is not ideal, the Hawks have shown through their two wins that they have the talent to compete with and beat quality opposition. The team will need to regain their confidence and belief if they are to translate these sporadic strong performances into greater consistency moving forward. With some hard work on the training paddock, the Hawks will look to get back to their winning ways.
Fremantle Dockers Performance
🟥🟩🟥🟩🟥 The Fremantle Dockers have had an inconsistent run of results in their last 5 games, managing 2 wins against 3 losses. Out of their most recent matches, they were victorious 40% of the time, while being defeated on the other 60% of occasions. This mixed set of results shows the Dockers have struggled to maintain strong form, with losses interrupted by occasional wins. However, the 2 triumphs they achieved prove Fremantle are still capable of success on any given day. To improve their form, the Dockers will need to find more consistency and string together consecutive wins. While their record over the past 5 games is not ideal, Fremantle have shown glimpses of potential through their 2 victories. The team will be eager to build momentum going forward by translating these sporadic strong performances into greater consistency week to week. With focus and hard work at training, the Dockers will aim to regain their winning habits.
📋 Players to watch:
- The Hawks have won 2 of their last 3 matches
- Karl Amon has tallied 25+ disposals in his past 5 games
- James Worpel has collected 25+ disposals in 9 of his last 11 matches. In the other 2 games, he managed 23 and 24 disposals.
- Dylan Moore has kicked 6 goals in his previous 4 matches against the Dockers.
- Luke Breust has kicked 21 goals in his last 8 games.
⚡ Match Facts:
- Fremantle have won all 4 recent meetings between these teams over the last 3 years. They have clearly had the wood over the Hawks.
- Both teams have been inconsistent lately, each winning 2 of their last 5 games. Momentum is evenly matched.
- Hawthorn is a slight favourite as the home team. However, Fremantle's historical dominance in this matchup counters the home-ground advantage.
- The Dockers are in good form recently, winning 3 of their last 5 games. Hawthorn has lost 4 of 5. Momentum favors Fremantle.
- Fremantle sits higher on the ladder in the 14th spot with 9 wins compared to Hawthorn down in 16th with just 7 victories. The standings give the Dockers an advantage.
- In their last matchup in May, Fremantle earned a massive 117-48 win over the Hawks. A similarly dominant margin seems likely.
- Hawthorn has the worst defence in the league, conceding over 100 points per game on average. Fremantle's offense should feast.
- A 102-59 scoreline would reflect Fremantle's recent supremacy in this matchup. Their superior form and ladder position suggest the Dockers will continue their dominant run against the Hawks.
Considering Fremantle's compelling 4-0 head-to-head record, I expect them to continue their winning ways against the Hawks. It will be a tense, low-scoring game that comes down to the wire.
💡 Match Prediction:
According to predictive models, Hawthorn enters as narrow favourites against Fremantle but not by much. The probability sits at 54.8% for the Hawks compared to 45.2% for the Dockers. That translates to tight fair odds of $1.83 for Hawthorn and $2.21 for Fremantle, highlighting the Hawks' slight projected edge. With Hawthorn showing improved form lately and holding home-ground advantage, their status as marginal favourites is understandable despite Fremantle's superior ladder position.
The forecast calls for the Hawks to edge the Dockers by an estimated 5 points in what should be a tightly fought contest between two closely matched teams. However, Fremantle certainly has the talent to defy the odds and spring an upset victory.
Hawthorn vs Fremantle: 71-98 or Fremantle to win by 5 points
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