GWS Giants vs Essendon Bombers Predictions and Betting Tips
🏈 AFL Round 23 Match Preview
⏰ 19 August 2023 - 16:35 AEST
🏟 Stadium - Giants Stadium
Aussie Rules fans are gearing up for an exciting match as the GWS Giants take on the Essendon Bombers in an upcoming AFL fixture. This highly anticipated game is set to entertain on 19 August 2023 at 4:35 pm AEST.
In the lead-up, AusBetSites aggregated betting odds from Picklebet and different sportsbooks across 37 markets. The current odds have installed the home-side Giants as favourites at 1.33 against the visiting Bombers. But Essendon will be eager to snag an upset win on their interstate trip.
There are massive finals implications in this clash with both teams locked in a logjam for the last playoff spots. After Round 22, Essendon sits 9th, just 0.5% ahead of 10th-placed GWS. The Giants have lost 2 straight, including a 51-point thumping from Port Adelaide last week. Despite efforts from Jake Riccardi (4 goals) and Tom Green (31 disposals), GWS was never really in it.
Earlier that weekend, Essendon held off 17th-placed North Melbourne by 9 points. That came a week after narrowly beating wooden spoon favourites West Coast by 1 point. Prolific ball winners Darcy Parish and Nick Martin will go head-to-head against GWS stars like Green, Lachie Whitfield and Josh Kelly.
Martin also kicked 3 goals against North to support forwards Kyle Langford and Peter Wright who combined for 5 majors. A win for either club will keep their finals hopes alive ahead of tough Round 24 tests. This looms as a mini-elimination final between two inconsistent sides desperate to stay in the hunt.
GWS Giants vs Essendon Bombers Head-to-Head
Over the last 3 years, the GWS Giants and Essendon Bombers have faced each other 4 times. In their recent head-to-head meetings, Essendon has held the edge with 3 wins compared to just 1 for the Giants. Out of the 4 games played between GWS and Essendon during this period, the Bombers have a 3-1 advantage in the win-loss column. With 3 times as many victories as the Giants, the Bombers have proven to be a very difficult opponent for GWS to overcome recently. Essendon's strong head-to-head record demonstrates they have historically matched up well against the expansion club. Despite home field this time, the Giants’ poor recent record versus the Bombers suggests this could be another tall task facing the Sydney side.
Overall, the mirroring records show both clubs have battled inconsistency lately. But winning their last matches could provide confidence entering this high-stakes clash.
GWS Giants Performance
🟩🟩🟩🟥🟥 The GWS Giants come into this match with mixed form in their past 5 games, recording 3 wins and 2 losses. The Giants started this stretch strongly with 3 consecutive victories, showing they can still compete with and beat quality teams. However, back-to-back defeats followed, highlighting GWS's issues with sustaining intensity week-to-week. While talented, the Giants have struggled for consistency during this turbulent run.
Essendon Bombers Performance
🟩🟩🟥🟥🟥 Essendon have experienced ups and downs in recent weeks. Over their last 5 matches, the Bombers have notched 2 wins against 3 losses. Essendon began with 2 straight defeats before turning it around with 2 wins in a row. So, like the Giants, momentum has swung back and forth for Essendon during an erratic period. The Bombers have proven capable of beating good teams while also dropping games in a disappointing fashion.
📋 Players to watch:
- Tom Green has averaged 28 disposals in his last 4 games against Essendon.
- Darcy Parish is averaging 31 disposals in his last 3 matches.
- Jesse Hogan has kicked 6 goals in his past 3 matches against the Bombers.
- Toby Greene has scored 6 goals in his past 3 games versus Essendon.
- Kyle Langford has kicked 15 goals in his last 4 matches.
These stats highlight some intriguing historical matchups and in-form players. Prolific ball-winners Parish and Green should find plenty of possessions. Meanwhile, Hogan and Greene have strong recent goal-kicking records against Essendon. And Langford has been a key forward target for the Bombers. With talent on both sides, this shapes as a tantalizing contest between evenly-matched clubs.
⚡ Match Facts:
- GWS has won 4 of its past 5 matches against Essendon.
- The Giants have won their last 3 games versus the Bombers at this venue.
- Both GWS and Essendon have 11 wins from 21 games this AFL season.
- Essendon shades GWS on percentage and sits 9th, one spot above the 10th-placed Giants.
These points highlight GWS's strong recent record against the Bombers, especially at home. The Giants and Dons have near identical records this season, though Essendon currently holds the finals spot. With finals hopes on the line, GWS will aim to leverage their home-ground dominance over the Bombers in this crucial clash.
💡 Match Prediction:
The prediction takes into account GWS's strong home record, suggesting they could kick 15+ goals to reach over 100 points against the Bombers. Meanwhile, Essendon may be restricted to around 10-12 goals and held under 80 points at this unhappy hunting ground. The dominant 32+ point expected margin fits with GWS winning 105-73. Of course, the actual score could end up being a bit different in either direction. But based on the data given, a reasonable prediction is Giants 105 - Bombers 73, with GWS asserting their dominance at home.
Despite Essendon's strong recent head-to-head record, the bookmakers predict a one-sided affair in favour of GWS at home. The Giants have a 79.1% probability to win compared to just 20.9% for the Bombers. At fair odds, GWS is a heavy favourite at $1.26 while Essendon is a distant $4.79 outsider. The Giants' array of talent and dominant home record over the Bombers makes them clear picks to control this contest.
GWS is tipped to beat Essendon convincingly by 32 points or more at their fortress in western Sydney. While capable of upsets, this shapes as extremely difficult assignment for the Bombers based on the Giants' superiority in the matchup. GWS can take a big step towards finals by utilizing their home-ground advantage.
Score Prediction: GWS Giants 105 - 73 Essendon Bombers
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