Essendon Bombers vs Collingwood Magpies Predictions and Betting Tips
🏈 AFL Round 24 Match Preview
⏰ 25 August 2023 - 19:50 AEST
🏟 Stadium - Melbourne Cricket Ground
Aussie Rules supporters are gearing up for an entertaining clash when the Essendon Bombers take on the Collingwood Magpies. The two AFL clubs go head-to-head on 25/08/2023 at 7:50 pm AEST.
In the lead-up to this highly anticipated matchup, AusBetSites has gathered the most current betting odds from 3 Australian betting sites across 36 different markets. The oddsmakers have installed the Magpies as clear favourites entering the contest with money line odds of 1.14.
The Essendon Bombers travel to face ladder leaders Collingwood in Round 24 after a dismal 126 point loss to GWS last week ended their finals chances. With nothing to play for, Essendon capitulated in their fifth-worst defeat ever. Heading in as underdogs again, the Bombers meet a Pies outfit eager to bounce back from their own upset loss to Brisbane in Round 23.
Injuries have hit Collingwood at the worst possible time, losing three of their past four games. Their midfield was smashed last week and defensively they've been a sieve, conceding over 100 points a game in the last month - the worst record in that timeframe.
Jordan De Goey and Bobby Hill return but Nathan Murphy is out, leaving another hole in defense. Despite these issues, it's hard to see Collingwood relinquishing top spot given Essendon's fadeout. However, a shock loss could see them slip to 2nd, though 3rd remains unlikely with their strong percentage buffer. With little motivation and a lengthy injury list, the Bombers face a huge challenge against a Collingwood side still playing for a home final.
Essendon Bombers vs Collingwood Magpies Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record between these two AFL clubs over the past 3 years suggests this matchup could go either way. In their last 5 meetings, the Bombers and Magpies have each managed 2 wins apiece, with no draws. Despite their nearly identical head-to-head record recently, the Magpies do have a slight edge having won just one more of the last 5 matchups. However, with both teams taking turns picking up wins against one another in recent seasons, this rivalry has proven to be a close one. Based on the back-and-forth nature of this head-to-head, fans could be treated to another tight contest when Essendon and Collingwood take the field. With the teams trending even against each other lately, picking a winner is tough to call.
Essendon Bombers Performance
🟥🟥🟩🟩🟥 The Essendon Bombers come into this match looking to turn around their recent fortunes after some mixed results. In their last five games, the Bombers have managed two wins against three losses. With only two victories in their previous five outings, Essendon has struggled to find consistency lately. The two wins and three defeats over this stretch demonstrate the Bombers' up-and-down form as they've failed to string together consecutive positive results. They will be eager to build some momentum with a strong performance against Collingwood. If the inconsistent Bombers are to have a chance at taking down the in-form Magpies, they'll need to find their best form after an unpredictable few weeks that has seen them drop three of their last five contests.
Collingwood Magpies Performance
🟥🟩🟥🟥🟩 The Collingwood Magpies come into this matchup in solid form, having won three of their last five games. With three victories against just two defeats in their most recent outings, the Magpies have built some positive momentum after a stretch of inconsistent play. The three wins over the past five contests display Collingwood's ability to string together a run of good performances. They'll look to maintain this promising form against rivals Essendon. If the Magpies can extend their impressive record to four wins from six games, it would mark a dominant run that further cements their status as one of the competition's in-form teams. Riding high after three triumphs in their last five matches, Collingwood will aim to keep their strong play going against the Bombers.
📋 Players to watch:
- Jack Crisp has been Mr. Consistent for the Pies, collecting 20+ disposals in his last 7 games.
- Bombers star Zach Merrett has performed well against the Pies, averaging nearly 34 disposals in his past 3 matches against Collingwood.
- Emerging Magpie Josh Daicos has found plenty of the ball, averaging 32 disposals over the last 2 rounds.
- Dons midfielder Darcy Parish has also dominated this matchup, averaging 31 disposals in his last 3 games against the Pies.
- Jamie Elliott has feasted on the Bombers, kicking 6 goals across his previous 3 matches against Essendon.
- Essendon's Kyle Langford has been in scoring form with 2+ goals in his last 5 games.
With these players excelling recently and in this head-to-head rivalry, expect them to have a major impact when these arch rivals meet again.
⚡ Match Facts:
- Collingwood leads the recent head-to-head 3 wins to 2 over the last 5 matches. They have a slight edge historically.
- The Magpies are in better form, winning 3 of their last 5 games compared to just 2 wins for the Bombers recently. Momentum favors Collingwood.
- Collingwood sits atop the AFL standings with 17 wins while Essendon is mid-table with 11 wins. The standings reflect the Magpies' superiority this season.
- In their last meeting in April 2023, Collingwood earned a solid 13-point win over Essendon, 90-77. A similar outcome could be expected.
- Essendon has struggled for consistency with an up-and-down 2-3 record over their past 5 games. Collingwood looks more reliable lately.
- High-scoring shootouts are common between these rivals, so a close match in the 80s or 90s range seems probable.
💡 Match Prediction:
Collingwood's slightly better head-to-head record, stronger current form and high-flying 2022 season, I predict the Magpies to continue their winning ways over Essendon with a 93-82 victory. However, these matches are usually closely fought contests that could go either way.
According to predictive models, the Collingwood Magpies enter as clear favorites against the Essendon Bombers. The probability sits at 77.3% for a Magpies win, compared to just 22.7% for the Bombers to spring an upset. That translates to lopsided fair odds of $1.29 for Collingwood and $4.41 for Essendon, highlighting the significant advantage the market expects the Magpies to have. With Collingwood in better recent form and higher on the AFL ladder, plus holding a narrow edge historically, their status as favourites is unsurprising.
The forecast calls for the Magpies to prevail by an estimated 30 points, reflecting their perceived dominance. If the predictions hold up, Collingwood should be able to continue their winning ways over the Bombers.
Essendon Bombers vs Collingwood Magpies: 93-82 or the Magpies win by 30 points
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