England vs Samoa Prediction and Betting Tips
🏈 Rugby World Cup 2023 Match Preview
⏰ 7 October 2023 - 16:45 GMT +1
⏰ 8 October 2023 - 01:45 AEST
🏟 Stadium - Stade Pierre-Mauroy (Villeneuve d'Ascq)
England will aim for a perfect 4-0 pool stage record for the first time since 2011 when they face Samoa at Stade Pierre-Mauroy on Saturday afternoon. With a five point lead atop the group, England have secured a quarterfinal against the Pool C runner up in Marseille next Sunday. For Samoa to progress, they must win and hope Japan vs Argentina ends in a draw, eliminating both sides.
After early tournament red cards and suspensions, coach Eddie Jones now has a full squad available, a first for England at the 2023 RWC. Banned trio Owen Farrell, Billy Vunipola and Tom Curry all return as starters, with Farrell the lone survivor from the 71-0 thrashing of Chile. That means no spot for 20-year-old Henry Arundell, who scored five tries against Chile! Manu Tuilagi is back to face his birth nation.
Jones was typically diplomatic naming the team, saying England want to continue improving against a strong Samoa side, calling them an excellent test. Some may argue he overplays the opposition, given Samoa have won just twice in six, including 43-10 over minnows Chile.
Samoa's 28-22 loss to Japan likely ended their top two hopes for the first time since 1999. With no wins in eight past clashes, experts predict only a Chile victory for Samoa. To produce a quarterfinal shock, Samoa must improve handling errors (12-4 loss to Japan) and turnovers conceded (14-7).
Samoa make nine changes but Premiership duo Theo McFarland and Steven Luatua remain. It will be interesting to see how McFarland goes alongside Fritz Lee, both yet to miss a minute.
📋 Players to watch:
- Winger Jonny May is yet to score but has four previous RWC tries, including two against Samoa in 2014
- Opposite, powerhouse Neria Fomai starts for the first time, chasing his first points.
⚡ Match Facts:
- England top Pool D on 15 points from 3 bonus point wins. Guaranteed quarterfinals.
- Samoa can qualify with a win if Japan vs Argentina draw.
- Last met in 2014, England won 60-6 in RWC pool match.
- England won all 8 previous meetings. Samoa never scored over 22.
- Owen Farrell returns from suspension to captain England.
- Samoa make 9 changes. McFarland and Luatua keep starting spots.
💡 Match Prediction:
England should have too much quality across the park and will be looking to make a statement ahead of the knockouts. Samoa don't seem to have the scoring power or creativity to threaten England. England's forwards dominated possession in all 3 matches so far. Samoa have struggled at set pieces. Owen Farrell organizing England's slick backline attack with Tuilagi and May providing finishing. Samoa prone to handling errors and turnover ball against Japan. England will punish those mistakes.
England should run riot against Samoa in a comfortable win. Back them to cover a -19.5 point handicap. Both teams like to play expansive rugby, so take over 52 total points to be safe.
- England to win by 20+ points
- England -19.5 point handicap
- Over 52 total match points
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