Collingwood Magpies vs Melbourne Demons Predictions and Betting Tips
🏈 AFL Final Round Week 1 Match Preview
⏰ 7 September 2023 - 19:20 AEST
🏟 Stadium - Melbourne Cricket Ground
AFL fans are in for a treat this Thursday night when the Collingwood Magpies host the Melbourne Demons at the MCG. The highly-anticipated clash between these two powerhouses kicks off at 7:20 pm AEST.
Recent history favours the Demons, having won three of the last four encounters between the sides. Melbourne has had the wood over the Pies in recent years.
The Magpies came into this match with mixed form, winning two and losing three of their last five games. They have struggled for consistency of late.
In contrast, the Demons are flying high, scoring four wins from their past five matches. They appear to be timing their run nicely heading towards the finals. Melbourne look hard to beat at the moment.
This shapes as a mouth-watering contest between two of the competition's heavyweight clubs. With finals positioning on the line, expect both teams to come out firing in what should be a closely fought battle.
Collingwood and Melbourne clash in the First Qualifying Final on Tuesday, September 5th, with the winner progressing straight to the Preliminary Finals. The loser faces a sudden death semi-final against either Carlton or Sydney. There's barely anything separating the two teams in AusBetSites betting, with Collingwood holding a slight favouritism as minor premiers. The Magpies won 18 of their 23 home and away matches, while Melbourne were fourth with 16 wins.
After a flying start to 2023, Collingwood sealed a top four spot early. They stumbled in the closing rounds, winning just two of their final five games. But the Pies looked sharp last week, thrashing Essendon by 70 points.
Jordan De Goey was superb with 27 disposals and a goal, while Tom Mitchell gathered 33 touches and a major. Brody Mihocek and Jack Ginnivan combined for six goals. Jamie Elliott should be fit to play despite copping a corked thigh. However, Nick Daicos remains sidelined with a knee complaint.
Melbourne come into the finals in strong form, winning seven of their past eight matches. In their most recent outing, they defeated Sydney by 19 points. Christian Petracca, Jack Viney and Clayton Oliver each had 25+ disposals, and Bailey Fritsch kicked five goals.
The Demons will miss Jake Melksham, who injured his knee against the Swans. Tom McDonald is likely to replace him. While Melbourne have the momentum and firepower, this match is delicately poised. The teams met back in Round 13 when the Dees edged the Magpies by just four points. We could be set for another tight contest here.
Collingwood Magpies vs Melbourne Demons Head-to-Head
Recent history between these two sides over the last three years shows that Melbourne have had the better of Collingwood. The Demons have won three of the last four clashes between the teams, with the Magpies only managing a single victory in that period. Of the four games played in their last four meetings, Melbourne have claimed bragging rights in three compared to just the one win for Collingwood. The Demons have clearly had the wood over the Pies in their recent matchups.
Collingwood Magpies Performance
🟩🟩🟥🟩🟩 The Magpies come into this match with inconsistent form in their most recent outings. Over their last five games, Collingwood have managed just two wins compared to three losses. Their recent record of two victories and three defeats highlights the Magpies' struggle to maintain consistency of performance.
Melbourne Demons Performance
🟥🟥🟩🟥🟩 Demons enter this clash in strong form having won four of their previous five matches. Melbourne have only suffered a solitary loss in their last five games, pointing to a return to form and momentum building at the right end of the season. Their recent record of four wins and one loss shows the Demons to be in excellent shape.
📋 Players to watch:
- Clayton Oliver has averaged 33 disposals in his last four matches against Collingwood.
- Christian Petracca has averaged 29 disposals in his past five games against the Pies.
- Jack Viney has averaged 28.5 disposals in his past four clashes with Collingwood.
- Jordan De Goey has averaged 26 disposals in his last three matches against Melbourne.
- Jack Crisp has had 20+ disposals in his past eight games.
- Scott Pendlebury has had 20+ disposals in every match this season except when used as the sub.
- Jamie Elliott has kicked eight goals in his past four games against the Demons.
- Bailey Fritsch returned from injury with five goals against Sydney.
⚡ Match Facts:
- Carlton has won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these sides.
- GWS's lone win over that stretch was a narrow 1-point victory earlier this season.
- Carlton are in red-hot form, winning their last 5 games straight. They look primed for a finals push.
- GWS have been inconsistent, registering 3 wins and 2 losses from their past 5 matches.
- Carlton has scored over 100 points in 4 of their last 5 games, showing their attacking potency.
- However, GWS have kept their opponents under 100 points in 3 of their past 5 games.
💡 Match Prediction:
Carlton should enter as favorites given their stellar recent form and dominance in the head-to-head record. But GWS have proven they can match it with the Blues, evidenced by their Round 15 win. I'm predicting a close, high-scoring contest with the Blues to continue their winning run and cover a line of -12.5 points.
- Back Carlton to Cover the Line (-12.5 points) @ 1.90
- Over 174.5 Total Points @ 1.85
- Carlton to Win @ 1.45
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