Collingwood Magpies vs Brisbane Lions Predictions and Betting Tips

🏈 AFL Grand Final Match Preview

⏰ 30 September 2023 - 14:30 AEST

🏟 Stadium - Melbourne Cricket Ground (Melbourne)

The Collingwood Magpies will host the Brisbane Lions in an AFL match on Saturday, 30 September 2023 at 7:30pm AEST. This clash between two top sides is sure to entertain all Aussie Rules fans.

AusBetSites provides Collingwood and Brisbane betting odds from 50 sites across 37 markets. The bookies currently have the Magpies as favourites to win at $1.55.

Collingwood looks likely to take home the AFL Grand Final trophy in 2023 for several reasons: Despite Brisbane winning the last six encounters between these teams, none of those wins came at the MCG. The Lions have only won one of their last 16 matches at the home of footy.

Looking at the stats, Collingwood tend to get more disposals per game - averaging 365 compared to Brisbane's 342. The Magpies also have the edge in handballs, tackles, uncontested possessions and other key areas this season.

Brisbane are ahead in stats like kicks, marks and clearances. They also earn slightly more free kicks. An interesting contrast is the sides' records at the MCG this year.

The Lions have won just one of 16 games there recently, beating Melbourne in last year's finals. In 2023, Brisbane lost to Hawthorn and Melbourne at the venue. Meanwhile, Collingwood have played 16 MCG games for 13 wins this season. They've also won both finals matches there. Brisbane's finals have been at the Gabba.

Despite Brisbane winning the last 6 head-to-heads, these were at the Gabba or Marvel Stadium - not the MCG. The Lions beat the Magpies in both clashes this year, but one was away and the other Collingwood were missing key players.

The MCG grand final, Collingwood's home ground advantage and statistical edges seem to give them the upper hand. But Brisbane's hot streak against them can't be ignored either.

• Collingwood have a strong home record at the MCG this season with 13 wins from 16 games, while Brisbane have struggled there recently with just 1 win from their last 16 matches.
• Collingwood statistically have an advantage in disposals and some other key stats over Brisbane this season.
• Despite Brisbane winning the last 6 head-to-head matchups, none of those were at the MCG. At a neutral venue like the MCG, Collingwood's home ground advantage could be significant.
• In their two matches this season, one was away at Brisbane and the other Collingwood was missing key players. The Grand Final will be on neutral ground with both teams at full strength.
• Brisbane's finals so far have been at their home Gabba stadium, while Collingwood has won their finals at the MCG.

So the MCG venue, Collingwood's statistical edges, and Brisbane's poor MCG record seem to favor the Magpies as favorites for the 2023 AFL Grand Final matchup. However, Brisbane's recent dominance in the head-to-head series can't be discounted either. It should be an exciting and competitive game.

📋 Players to watch:

• Darcy Wilmot has had 15+ disposals in 14 straight matches.
• Scott Pendlebury has averaged 28 disposals in his last 3 games against the Lions.
• In his past 4 matches against Brisbane, Jack Crisp has averaged 26 disposals.
• Over his last 6 games, Tom Mitchell is averaging 26 disposals.
• Lachie Neale has averaged 29 disposals in his previous 4 matches against the Magpies.
• Nick Daicos averaged 31 disposals per game this AFL season.
• In his past 4 games against Collingwood, Joe Daniher has booted 12 goals.
• Charlie Cameron has kicked 17 goals in his last 4 matches against the Magpies.
• This season, Brody Mihocek is averaging 2 goals per game.
• Jordan de Goey has kicked 6 goals in his last 3 games against the Lions.
• Cam Rayner has booted 7 goals in his past 3 matches against Collingwood.

⚡ Match Facts:

• This will be the first AFL Grand Final meeting between Collingwood and Brisbane.
• Collingwood last reached the Grand Final in 2018, losing to West Coast. Brisbane's last Grand Final appearance was in 2003.
• The Magpies finished the regular season in 4th place with 16 wins, 6 losses. The Lions were 2nd with 17 wins, 5 losses.
• Collingwood won both of their finals so far - beating Fremantle by 1 point and Geelong by 27 points.
• Brisbane defeated Richmond by 22 points and Geelong by 18 points in their finals.
• In head-to-head meetings this season, Brisbane won both - by 33 points in round 4 and 24 points in round 23.
• Collingwood have won the last 4 matches between the sides at the MCG. Brisbane's last win at the MCG over the Pies was in 2014.
• Craig McRae is coaching his first Grand Final in his first season as Magpies coach. Chris Fagan will coach his second Grand Final with the Lions.
• Patrick Lipinski v Hugh McCluggage shapes as a key midfield battle. As does Scott Pendlebury v Lachie Neale.
• Mason Cox and Joe Daniher will be an important matchup of tall forwards. As will Brody Mihocek v Daniel McStay.

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💡 Match Prediction:

Given Collingwood's dominant record at the MCG this season and Brisbane's historical struggles there, I believe the Magpies will make the most of their home ground advantage. Their midfield also seems well equipped to win the possession battle.

The Lions cannot be written off given their winning streak over Collingwood and prowess in contested situations. However, the MCG factor and Magpies' form seems too much for them to overcome.

I'm predicting Collingwood to win by 12 points.

Betting Tips:

• Collingwood to win: $1.55
• Under 182.5 total match points at $1.90
• Collingwood -6.5 line bet at $1.90

Collingwood's midfield to lead them to a close victory despite Brisbane's physicality makes me lean towards a lower scoring thriller decided by under a 2 goal margin. Home ground advantage for the Magpies also makes them covering a -6.5 line bet a solid option.