Collingwood Magpies vs Brisbane Lions Predictions and Betting Tips
🏈 AFL Round 23 Match Preview
⏰ 18 August 2023 - 19:50 AEST
🏟 Stadium - Marvel Stadium
Aussie Rules fans are gearing up for an exciting match when the Collingwood Magpies host the Brisbane Lions in an upcoming AFL fixture. This highly anticipated clash is set to entertain on 18 August 2023 at 19:50 AEST.
In the lead-up to gameday, AusBetSites aggregated betting odds from 3 different betting sites across 36 markets. The current odds have installed the home-side Magpies as favourites at 1.6 for this contest at the MCG. But the Lions will be eager to snag a win on their interstate trip to Victoria.
Friday night football is shaping up as a blockbuster with the top two teams on the AFL ladder going head-to-head. The ladder-leading Collingwood Magpies bounced back last Friday with a win over Geelong, ending a two-game losing streak.
On the same weekend, the Brisbane Lions rose to second spot after a hard-fought six-point victory over Adelaide at home. The win kept their perfect Gabba record intact this season. If Brisbane can maintain their high ladder position, they will secure a coveted home final with September approaching.
The Lions will have to do it without Jack Gunston, who suffered a knee injury last week. But with attacking stars like Joe Daniher, Eric Hipwood and Charlie Cameron, Brisbane has plenty of forward firepower. Their main concern is performing on the road, with all six of Brisbane's losses in 2022 coming in away games.
Collingwood has injury issues of their own, losing key defenders Darcy Moore (hamstring) and Jordan de Goey. Moore's absence could expose the Pies defence. But with electric midfielder Josh Daicos in sublime form, Collingwood has the class to win this blockbuster battle.
Collingwood Magpies vs Brisbane Lions Head-to-Head
Over the last 8 years, the Gold Coast Titans and Penrith Panthers have faced each other 10 times. In their recent matchups, the Panthers have dominated with 8 wins compared to just 2 for the Titans. Of the 10 games played between the clubs, none have ended in draws. With 4 times as many victories as the Titans, Penrith has proven to be an extremely difficult opponent for Gold Coast to overcome. The Panthers' 8-2 head-to-head advantage demonstrates they have historically matched up extremely well against the Titans. Despite home-field advantage this time, the Titans' poor record versus Penrith suggests this could be another daunting challenge for Gold Coast.
Collingwood Magpies Performance
🟥🟥🟩🟥🟥 The Collingwood Magpies come into this clash with mixed form in their last 5 matches. Collingwood has recorded 3 wins and 2 losses during this recent stretch of games. The victories showed the Magpies' potential, with all 3 wins coming by over 3 goals. This demonstrates Collingwood can still be a very formidable opponent on their day. However, the 2 defeats exposed some concerning lapses, especially the heavy loss to Geelong in Round 20. The Magpies will need to regain consistency if they are to solidify a finals spot.
Brisbane Lions Performance
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 Similarly, the Brisbane Lions have experienced their fair share of ups and downs lately. Over their past 5 games, Brisbane has notched 3 wins against 2 losses. The Lions scored big victories over Gold Coast, Adelaide and Fremantle, proving their best is as good as anyone's. But convincing defeats to Melbourne and the Western Bulldogs raised questions about Brisbane's defense and ability to challenge the competition's elite. Overall, the Lions' form mirrors that of Collingwood - flashes of excellence mixed with worrying lapses.
📋 Players to watch:
- Darcy Wilmot has recorded 15+ disposals in each of his last 10 matches.
- Scott Pendlebury has had 20+ disposals in 10 of his past 11 matches.
- McCluggage has averaged 27 disposals in his past four games against the Magpies.
- Josh Daicos is averaging 28 disposals in his last eight matches.
- Charlie Cameron has booted 15 goals in his past four appearances against Collingwood.
- Joe Daniher has booted 12 goals in his past four appearances against Collingwood.
⚡ Match Facts:
- Heading into this blockbuster clash, Collingwood sits atop the AFL ladder with 17 wins from 21 games, while Brisbane is second with 15 victories.
- Interestingly, all of Brisbane's losses this season have come in away matches. However, the Lions have won seven of their past eight contests at Marvel Stadium.
- By contrast, Collingwood has won just five of their last 11 appearances at the venue.
- In recent head-to-head meetings, Brisbane has dominated the Pies, winning the last five matchups between the clubs. One of those victories came at Marvel Stadium in 2021, when Zac Bailey kicked a goal after the siren to spectacularly win it for the Lions.
- With strong away form and a stellar recent record against their rivals, Brisbane will be confident of taking down the ladder leaders Collingwood on their home deck this Friday night.
💡 Match Prediction:
The prediction takes into account Collingwood's home-ground advantage, suggesting they may edge the Lions with a higher-scoring affair at the MCG. The Magpies could put up 15+ goals to reach the low 90s point mark. Meanwhile, Brisbane's strong attack should still see them kick 10+ goals to end up in the low 80s. The 11-point expected margin fits with Collingwood winning 94-83 in a close, high-scoring contest. Of course, the actual score could end up being a bit different in either direction. But based on the data given, a reasonable prediction is Magpies 94 - Lions 83, with Collingwood outlasting Brisbane at home.
Despite Brisbane's strong recent record in the head-to-head, the bookmakers have installed Collingwood as modest favourites at home for this contest. The Magpies have a 61.0% probability to win compared to 39.0% for the Lions. At fair odds, Collingwood is valued at $1.64 while the Lions sit at $2.25 as the underdog. The Magpies' home-ground advantage at the MCG appears to be outweighing Brisbane's dominance over the past 3 years.
Collingwood is projected to bounce back against their recent nemesis, beating the Lions by 11 points. However, Brisbane has the talent and form to keep this a tight clash between the two sides with 3 wins apiece in their last 5 matches. Either club is capable of emerging in a hard-fought affair. But the Magpies are tipped to make home turf count in front of their passionate fans.
Score Prediction: Collingwood 94 - 83 Lions
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