Carlton Blues vs Sydney Swans Predictions and Betting Tips
🏈 AFL Final Round Week 1 Match Preview
⏰ 8 September 2023 - 19:50 AEST
🏟 Stadium - Melbourne Cricket Ground
AFL fans are in for a thriller on Friday night when the Carlton Blues take on the Sydney Swans at Marvel Stadium. The highly anticipated clash between these two finals contenders kicks off at 8:50pm AEST.
The betting sites in Australia have installed the Blues as narrow favourites heading into the match at $1.37. However, the Swans have proven to be a tough opponent this season, so expect a fierce contest between the old rivals.
With finals positioning on the line, both teams will be hungry to secure the four points. The Blues will be aiming to cement their spot in the top 4, while the Swans need a win to stay in touch with the top 8.
Based on recent meetings between the sides, this shapes as a high-scoring and tightly fought affair that could go down to the wire. Regardless of the outcome, AFL fans are in for a thrilling contest under the lights of Marvel.
Carlton returned to the finals for the first time since 2013, facing Sydney in an Elimination Final at the MCG on Tuesday, September 5th. The Swans will prove tough opposition, boasting far more September experience. John Longmire's side made the 2022 Grand Final, winning two finals last year including victory over Melbourne at the MCG.
Both teams appeared down and out mid-season before finishing with a wet sail. Carlton won nine straight, beating Collingwood, Port and Melbourne. They lost to GWS in Round 24 with a depleted side minus Patrick Cripps. Sydney also won seven consecutive matches before falling to Melbourne by 21 points in their final regular season game. Errol Gulden was brilliant with 42 disposals and two goals.
Charlie Curnow will be pivotal up forward after claiming the Coleman Medal with 78 goals at an average of 3.4 per game. He kicked three majors in the 42-point loss to GWS. The loser exits the 2023 campaign, and I'm leaning towards the Blues progressing to face either Collingwood or Melbourne.
Carlton Blues vs Sydney Swans Head-to-Head
Recent history between Carlton and Sydney over the last 3 years shows the Swans having had the upper hand in this matchup. Of their last 3 clashes, Sydney has emerged victorious in 2 compared to just 1 win for the Blues. With 3 games played between the sides over the past 3 seasons, the Swans have proven to be the dominant team in the recent head-to-head record.
Carlton Blues Performance
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟥 The Blues come into this clash in red-hot form, having won 4 of their last 5 matches. Carlton have only suffered a sole defeat in their previous 5 outings, highlighting the team's stellar recent run of results. Their record of 4 victories and 1 loss over the past 5 games shows the Blues to be in excellent shape.
Sydney Swans Performance
🟥🟩🟩🟩🟩 Swans have built momentum leading into this game, securing 4 wins from their last 5 fixtures. Sydney have also only lost 1 of their past 5 games, pointing to a return to form. With 4 wins and 1 loss in their previous 5 matches, the Swans appear to be timing their run nicely ahead of finals.
📋 Players to watch:
- Sam Walsh has averaged 30 disposals in his past five matches against the Swans.
- Errol Gulden has averaged 32 disposals in his last five games.
- Jake Lloyd has had 20+ disposals in nine of his past 11 matches, including 30 against the Blues last time.
- Tom Papley has kicked eight goals in his past five matches against Carlton.
- Isaac Heeney has kicked 20 goals in his past 10 matches.
- Charlie Curnow kicked 78 home and away goals this season at 3.4 per game.
⚡ Match Facts:
- Carlton are in red-hot form, winning their last 4 games.
- Sydney have also won 4 of their last 5 matches.
- Carlton have a poor recent H2H record against the Swans, winning just 1 of the last 3.
- Lance Franklin has kicked 27 goals from his last 5 games for the Swans.
💡 Match Prediction:
This should be a tight contest between two in-form teams. Carlton may start as slight favorites given they are at home, but Sydney have proven a tough opponent in recent meetings. I expect a high-scoring and entertaining match, with the Swans capable of an upset if Buddy Franklin continues his hot streak. Lean towards Sydney at the plus odds here against the short-priced Carlton.
- Sydney Swans +6.5 @ 1.90
- Over 175.5 Total Points @ 1.85
- Sydney Swans to Win @ 2.60
- Lance Franklin 2+ Goals @ 1.57
- Carlton Win Margin 1-24 @ 2.60
- Tom Papley Goal Scorer @ 2.00
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