Brisbane Lions vs Carlton Blues Predictions and Betting Tips

🏈 AFL Semi-Final Match Preview

⏰ 23 September 2023 - 17:15 AEST

🏟 Stadium - The Gabba (Brisbane)

The Brisbane Lions will host the Carlton Blues in an entertaining AFL semi-final at the Gabba on Saturday 23 September at 17:15 AEST.

AusBetSites provides odds for both teams across 37 markets and 49 sportsbooks. Currently, the bookies have installed the Lions as strong 1.25 favourites on their home deck.

The Lions are undefeated in their 12 games at the Gabba this season, most recently smashing Port Adelaide by 58 points in week one of finals. Joe Daniher booted 5 goals, while young guns Cam Rayner and Jaspa Fletcher chimed in with 3 apiece. Hugh McCluggage was instrumental through the middle with 26 disposals.

The surging Blues have won their first two finals in dramatic fashion since last reaching September in 2013. They upset Sydney by 7 points, then stunned Melbourne by 2 points on Blake Acres' late goal. Sam Walsh starred with 34 disposals, Patrick Cripps had 27, and Jacob Weitering was rock solid in defence.

Charlie Curnow was subdued by Steven May last week, booting just 1 goal. He and Harry McKay will be looking to bounce back, while Jack Martin should return from suspension.

But the Lions have too much firepower up forward, with Charlie Cameron, Cam Rayner and Eric Hipwood supporting Daniher. Look for Brisbane to end Carlton's run and book a Grand Final spot against either Collingwood or GWS.

📋 Players to watch:

• Darcy Wilmot has recorded 15+ disposals in his last 13 matches.
• Hugh McCluggage has averaged 26 disposals over his past 4 matches against the Blues.
• Sam Walsh has averaged 30 disposals in his last 4 matches against Carlton.
• Nic Newman is averaging 29 disposals over his past 7 matches.
• Zac Bailey has kicked 8 goals in his past 4 matches against the Blues.
• Harry McKay has kicked 11 goals in his last 4 matches against Brisbane.
• Charlie Cameron has kicked 10 goals in his past 4 matches against Carlton.

⚡ Match Facts:

• Brisbane has won its past 4 games against Carlton.
• The Lions are undefeated at the GABBA in 2023.
• Brisbane has won 10 of its past 12 matches, while Carlton has won 10 of its past 11.

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💡 Match Prediction:

Brisbane to win. The Lions' outstanding home record this season makes them clear favourites here. Their recent head-to-head dominance over the Blues also points to a Brisbane victory.

Betting Tip: Brisbane -17.5 point line

Given the Lions' scoring power with Daniher, Cameron and co. up forward, combined with the Gabba home ground factor, I expect them to cover this line comfortably.

Tip: Under 159.5 total match points

Despite both teams possessing talented forwards, finals typically see lower scoring. I expect this to be a relatively low-scoring scrap, staying under the total.

To summarise:

Brisbane to win Brisbane -17.5 Under 159.5 total points

The Lions should have too much firepower in front of their home fans. Their ability to put up big scores will see them cover the line and keep the game under the high total.